“Almost all doctors carry the briefcase oui? And a man with a briefcase leaves Lord Tiddlewink’s room moments before he dies.” Poirot glared at Dr. Mutton.
“I don’t think that really-”.
“Damn you Poirot! I’d kill him again if I could!” The doctor yelled, interrupting Hastings.
“Oh, nevermind” sighed Hastings.
A base rate fallacy occurs whenever some inference is drawn on the basis of a probabilistic statement and complete set of evidence is not taken into account. So, for example, in the saga Poirot reasons that i) almost all doctors have a briefcase, ii) the killer had a briefcase and therefore iii) the killer is probably a doctor. Of course, this is faulty reasoning as it ignores how widespread briefcase…
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